In a recently published mid-2025 outlook report, Standard Chartered has projected that the price of Bitcoin could reach $135,000 by the end of September. The global financial institution also reaffirmed its year-end target of $200,000 for the digital asset. This bullish forecast suggests a near doubling from the price of approximately $107,800 observed in early July.
According to Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank's Head of Digital Assets Research, three primary factors are expected to converge, potentially driving what could be Bitcoin's strongest-ever US dollar-denominated rally in the second half of 2025.
The Three Pillars of the Bullish Outlook
The analysis from Standard Chartered highlights a powerful combination of institutional forces that differ significantly from previous market cycles.
1. Sustained Spot ETF Inflows
The approval and subsequent success of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in various regions have opened a massive gateway for institutional capital. These financial products provide a regulated and familiar avenue for traditional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without the complexities of direct custody. Continuous inflows into these ETFs are seen as a major source of consistent buying pressure.
2. Growing Corporate Treasury Adoption
The trend of companies allocating a portion of their treasury reserves to Bitcoin is gaining momentum. While MicroStrategy has been the most prominent example, Kendrick notes that activity from other institutions in the second quarter indicates a broadening of this trend. He anticipates that overall corporate treasury purchases in the third quarter will surpass those of the second quarter, creating a sustained source of demand that extends beyond a single entity.
👉 Explore corporate treasury strategies
3. Supportive Regulatory Developments
Positive regulatory clarity and policy shifts in key markets are providing a more stable and welcoming environment for digital assets. This reduces uncertainty for institutional investors and corporations, making them more comfortable with large-scale allocations. Favorable policy is considered a critical backdrop that supports the other two drivers.
A New Market Paradigm
A crucial point in Standard Chartered's analysis is the shift in what drives Bitcoin's price. The report argues that the current cycle is primarily fueled by institutional demand, a stark contrast to past cycles that were largely influenced by the post-halving supply squeeze.
Historical patterns suggested Bitcoin typically peaked and corrected around 526 and 547 days after a halving event. However, Kendrick emphasizes that the new channels of demand from ETFs and corporate treasuries—which did not exist in previous cycles—have effectively broken this historical pattern.
The report also suggests that selling pressure from long-term holders is likely to be weaker than in 2025. The constant and substantial inflows from new institutional sources are expected to be more than sufficient to absorb any profit-taking activity that occurs.
Monitoring a Key Economic Indicator
For traders and analysts, Kendrick highlights the importance of the 10-year US Treasury term premium. Since the beginning of 2024, Bitcoin's price movement has shown a strong correlation with this indicator. Standard Chartered expects the term premium to continue its upward trajectory, which, according to their model, would provide a further tailwind for Bitcoin's price.
This correlation suggests that Bitcoin is increasingly being treated as a macro-economic asset, sensitive to the same broad financial forces that impact traditional markets.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Standard Chartered's Bitcoin price prediction?
Standard Chartered has forecasted that Bitcoin will reach $135,000 by the end of September 2025 and reaffirmed its year-end price target of $200,000.
What are the main reasons for this bullish outlook?
The bank's analysts cite three key drivers: continuous inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, growing demand from corporate treasuries beyond just MicroStrategy, and a supportive regulatory policy environment.
How is this market cycle different from previous ones?
This cycle is believed to be driven predominantly by new, sustained institutional demand from ETFs and corporations, breaking away from the historical pattern of being driven mainly by the supply reduction following a halving event.
What is the 10-year Treasury term premium?
It is a measure of the extra yield investors demand to hold a longer-term bond instead of rolling over shorter-term bonds. Standard Chartered notes a strong correlation between this indicator and Bitcoin's price movement.
Should retail investors base their decisions on this price target?
Price predictions from financial institutions are analytical forecasts, not guarantees. They are useful for understanding market sentiment and key drivers but should be considered as just one piece of information within a broader, personal investment strategy.
Is corporate demand for Bitcoin still growing?
According to the report, evidence from Q2 2025 indicates that other institutions are actively acquiring Bitcoin, and overall corporate treasury buying in Q3 is expected to exceed the levels seen in Q2.